亚博app

农民土地流转通常是在自愿平等的基础上进行的,且耕地流转意愿是农户综合衡量自身条件、对外部环境的认知等之后理性选择的结果,因此农户耕地流转意愿对实际流转行为具有较强的导向性和影响力^[11]。由此也可以看出,耕地流转意愿最终能否驱动耕地流转行为发生,取决于外部条件影响下的一系列农户特征可否使得农户充分达到心理预期^[12]。

农民的非农就业机会与土地流转市场的规范性是影响农户耕地流转行为的主要外部因素^[13],二者分别通过吸引农村劳动力向非农产业转移和为耕地流转搭建有效渠道的方式,从人、地两方面促使农户将耕地流转意愿转化为实际行动。因此,对于发达地区而言,地区经济发展水平、土地流转市场的成熟程度和村庄地理位置等是农户能否实现耕地流转意愿的重要外部因素^[14],它们体现了城镇效应对于农村劳动力的吸引作用和对农村土地流转市场的带动作用。但对于我国传统农区而言,由于城镇辐射带动作用有限且户口和土地的体制壁垒问题目前较难打破,驱使农户将耕地流转意愿转化为实际行为的外部因素更多与村庄自身发展阶段密切相关,其多通过推动农民就地城镇化的方式实现耕地流转。

然而,耕地对于农民而言,不仅具有经济功能,最重要的是为农民提供了社会保障功能^[15],这使得一些外部条件对农户耕地流转行为的驱动作用也存在直接影响^[16-17],这一过程往往由于情感等非理性因素的干涉,最终导致农户耕地流转行为与意愿选择相悖。

基于农户耕地流转理论框架(图1),研究我国农区耕地流转应基于理性视角,明确农户耕地流转意愿对于耕地流转行为决策的重要意义,重点分析村庄不同发展阶段中影响农户耕地流转意愿的主要农户特征,并分析其驱动机制,为今后村庄发展过程中有针对性地理性推动耕地流转工作提供理论与现实依据。因此,选取农户耕地流转意愿为被解释变量,代表农户耕地流转行为的直接驱动力; 基于已有相关研究,解释变量的选取从农户的个人特征、家庭特征、耕地特征和认知水平等方面进行考虑(表1)。

tu1 nonghugengdiliuzhuanlilunkuangjia

亚博appbiao1 moxingsuoshejidebianliang

gerentezhengzhongdiankaolvzuoweinonghuzhuyaojuecezhedehuzhudegetiqingkuang,qinianling、zhiyeheshoujiaoyushuipingdengyinsusuodailaidesiweiheguannianshangdechayi,shideqiduitudideyilaichengduyousuobutong; jiatingtezhengzhongdiankaolvmuqiannongcunpubiancunzaidenonghushengjifenhuaxianxiang,jiatinglaodongliheshourujiegoudechayijianghuiyingxiangnonghuduitudideyilaixing; gengditezhengzhongdiankaolvnonghuchengbaogengdideguimo、zhongzhixianzhuanghegengzuochuxingtiaojian,yifanyinggengdiziyuanbingfuduimuqiannongyelaodongshengchanlvdeyingxiang; renzhishuipingzhongdiankaolvnonghuduikenengqudonggengdiliuzhuanxianxiangfashengdexiangguanzhengcedelejiechengdu,fanyingnonghuduitudiliuzhuanxiangguangongzuodehanyijiyiyiderentongchengdu。

本文的研究对象是农户耕地流转意愿,其答案只有“愿意”和“不愿意”两种情况,因此被解释变量是二元的离散变量。但多元回归分析要求因变量必须是具有间距测度等级的连续变量,所以本文采用二元离散的Logistic回归^[18]亚博app建立农户耕地流转意愿模型。这种回归方法将逻辑分布作为随机误差项的概率分布,适用于依据效用最大化原则所进行的选择行为分析,因此将其用于研究涉及自身利益最大化的农户意愿问题是非常合理的。其具体表达形式见式(1):

式中:P为农户愿意流转耕地的概率; X₁,X₂,…,X₁₃为各个解释变量; β₁,β₂,…,β₁₃为各影响因素的回归系数; β₀为截距; ε为误差。

lingwai,benwenzhuyaocaiquhengxiangbijiaoyanjiufa、dingliangyudingxingxiangjiehedefangfadeng,yikongjianchayitidaishijianyanbian,tongguoduibifenxiquzhouxian3gecunzhuangdenonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuanyingxiangyinsu,tantaonongqucunzhuangfazhanguochengzhongyindaochengbaogengdijingyingquanyouxuliuzhuandetujingyushouduan。

本研究所采用的数据来自于2017年8月21日—30日对研究区开展的农户调查。为对不同村庄发展阶段下的农户耕地流转意愿影响因素进行对比分析,综合考虑美丽乡村建设的现实意义^[19]及其阶段特征^[20-22],选取曲周县内的3个典型村庄进行调研。其中,西五间房村是具有一定历史文化底蕴的传统乡村,且村领导班子具有较为强烈的美丽农村建设意愿,属于农村发展的前期阶段; 前河道村属于农村发展中期阶段,其环境整治和基础设施建设工作已基本完成,并于2017年荣获省级“美丽乡村”称号; 后老营村属于农村发展后期阶段,其依托于“产业+文化”的发展模式,已成为曲周县具有代表性的美丽乡村精品村。

weiquanmianlejiecunzhuangfazhanxianzhuangjinonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuanqingkuang,nonghudiaochagongzuofenwei3gejieduankaizhan。diyijieduan,tongguoyuxiangzhenganbu、cunganbujinxingjiaoliuzuotan,lejieyangdiancunfazhanxianzhuangjidingwei,bawoqizhengtiqingkuang; dierjieduan,caiyongwenjuandiaochafaduinonghujinxingsuijichouyangdiaocha,shoujiyangbennonghuxiangjin、dingliangdexinxi,shenrulejienonghugengdiliuzhuanqingkuang,zuizhonggongwanchengyouxiaowenjuan183fen(xiwujianfangcun71hu、qianhedaocun57hu、houlaoyingcun55hu); disanjieduan,tongguoshiditakan,lejieyangdiancunxianzhuangbujuhejiansheqingkuang,bingduiqianlianggediaochajieduansuohuoxinxijinxingshidixiaoyanyukaocha,jinyibuwajuecunzhuangcunzaideshijiwentiyutedian。

以三村全部183份样本农户数据为例,为避免自变量之间高度相关导致回归系数不稳定,首先借助SPSS 20.0软件中的线性回归模块,通过自动计算方差膨胀因子(VIF)对所有解释变量进行多重共线性检验,结果显示其VIF值均小于10,各指标之间不存在多重共线性现象。然后,借助软件的Logistic回归模块,选择向前:条件方法对样本农户数据进行二元Logistic回归分析。这一方法是根据各解释变量加入分析后卡方检验最显著的原则逐步加入新的解释变量,并逐步根据回归检验结果删除又不再符合显著的自变量,直至所有显著变量存在于最终模型中。本次回归于第四步形成最优模型,但为确保回归模型可以用来分析相关问题,需进一步检验模型的拟合优度。通过模型系数的综合检验结果可知,最优模型的显著性(Sig.)为0,通过了1%的显著性检验,说明第四步引入的解释变量作用非常显著(表2)。Hosmer和Lemeshow检验将仅有截距的模型与最优模型进行比较,结果显示Sig.值大于0.05,说明最优模型与仅有截距的模型差异显著,第四步引入的解释变量有效且当前数据中的信息已经被充分提取(表3)。因此,该模型拟合优度较高,模型回归结果可以较好地反映黄淮海平原农区农户耕地流转意愿。采取同样的方法,也可以分别建立3个村庄农户耕地流转意愿的Logistic回归方程。

biao2 huanghuaihaipingyuannongqunonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuanmoxingxishudezonghejianyan

亚博appbiao3 huanghuaihaipingyuannongqunonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuanmoxinghosmerhe

软件自动计算所得到的黄淮海平原农区农户耕地流转意愿模型回归结果见表4。可见,最终被引入模型的解释变量共有4项。非标准化系数为各解释变量的回归系数; 显著性用于判断各自变量的作用是否显著; 优势比反映了解释变量每增加一个单位,给原来的发生比所带来的变化。另外,由于所选取的各解释变量单位不同,非标准化系数不能用于比较各解释变量的相对作用,因此本文增加了标准化系数,其计算公式^[23]见式(2):

式中:β_i为自变量i的标准化系数; b_i为自变量i的非标准化系数; s_i为自变量i的标准差; π/3^1/2为标准logistic分布的标准差,近似等于1.813 8。

biao4 huanghuaihaipingyuannongqunonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuanmoxinghuiguijieguo

bianliang feibiaozhunhuaxishu biaozhunhuaxishu xianzhuxing youshibihuzhuwenhuachengdu 0.305 0.149 0.101 1.356renjunnianshouru -2.744 -4.025 0.000 0.064jiatingzhuyaoshourulaiyuan 0.693 0.223 0.013 1.999“tudizhengzhi”、“gaobiaozhunjiben

亚博appnongtianjianshe”zhengcelejiechengdu 1.324 0.242 0.010 3.759

由回归结果可以看出(表4),对黄淮海平原农区农户耕地流转意愿影响显著的因素包括人均年收入、家庭主要收入来源和“土地整治”、“高标准基本农田建设”政策了解程度,其均通过了5%的显著性检验。其中,后两项指标的回归系数均为正值,结合其优势比可知,当家庭主要收入来源从纯农业转变为农业兼业,或从农业兼业转变为非农业时,农户愿意流转耕地的概率为原先的近2倍; 了解“土地整治”、“高标准基本农田建设”政策的农户愿意流转耕地的概率是不了解相关政策农户的近4倍。

人均年收入指标的回归系数为负值,优势比为0.064,说明家庭人均年收入每增加1 000元,农户愿意流转耕地的概率降低为原先的0.064倍。然而一般而言,随着农户生计非农化程度的加强,农民收入水平是不断提高的,但本文研究结果显示家庭主要收入来源与人均年收入对于农户耕地流转意愿的作用方向却是相反的。这是由于对于我国粮食主产区而言,农民更看重耕地的价值且他们在城镇稳定工作和居住的可能性较小^[24],经营性收入是其收入的主要来源^[25]亚博app,因此以农业经营为主的人均年收入水平越高,农民种植积极性越强烈,也就越不愿意流转耕地。

亚博apptongshi,tongguofenxigezhibiaodebiaozhunhuaxishujueduizhikeyifaxian,duiyunonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuaneryan,renjunnianshourudeyingxiangchengduyaobiqiyuzhibiaodadeduo。congjiatingzhuyaoshourulaiyuanshujuyekeyikanchu,44.81%denonghuweichunnongyehu,50.27%denonghuweinongyejianyehu,jinyou4.92%denonghuweifeinongyehu,nongyerengshihuanghuaihaipingyuannongqunongmindezuizhuyaoshengjilaiyuan。zheigengjinyibubiaoming,suiranshengjifeinonghuahuishidenonghuduiyugengdideyilaixingyousuojianruo,danduiyuhuanghuaihaipingyuannongqueryan,nongyeshourushuipingdegaodicaishiyingxianggengdiliuzhuanyiyuandezuizhijieyinsu。

3个村庄的农户耕地流转意愿模型均通过了相关检验。由回归结果可以看出(表5),影响3个村庄不同发展阶段农户耕地流转意愿的主要因素有家庭主要收入来源、“土地整治”、“高标准基本农田建设”政策了解程度、住处到田地距离、人均承包耕地面积和道路是否方便,且不同村庄发展阶段影响农户耕地流转意愿的因素有所差异:

(1)对于西五间房村和前河道村而言,家庭主要收入来源因素的标准化系数绝对值0.423和0.488分别居于首位,且其均通过了10%的显著性检验,表明家庭主要收入来源在农村发展的中前期阶段对农户耕地流转意愿的影响较为显著且其影响程度较大,到后期阶段影响并不显著。同时,当农村发展到中期阶段时,家庭主要收入来源的回归系数变为负值-0.488,优势比为0.194,说明当家庭主要收入来源从纯农业转变为农业兼业,或从农业兼业转变为非农业时,农户愿意流转耕地的概率降低为原先的0.194倍。从农民家庭决策的角度进行分析,农户一般希望充分利用家庭内部成员的分工优势使家庭收益最大化,因此农户经营呈现出了兼业化的特征。随着农区村庄的不断发展,农地非农化使得农户拥有的土地资源愈加有限,农业生产物质条件的改善使得农业劳动能力富余,耕地的社会保障功能以及一系列惠农政策使得农业经营有着相对较高的综合比较利益,因此尽管农户存在非农就业行为,其耕地流转意愿也并不活跃^[26]。

亚博app(2)duiyuqianhedaocunhehoulaoyingcuneryan,“tudizhengzhi”、“gaobiaozhunjibennongtianjianshe”zhengcelejiechengduyinsudebiaozhunhuaxishujueduizhifenbiejuyudierweiheshouwei,qieqijuntongguole10%dexianzhuxingjianyan,biaoming“tudizhengzhi”、“gaobiaozhunjibennongtianjianshe”zhengcelejiechengduzainongcunfazhandezhonghouqijieduanduinonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuandeyingxiangjiaoweixianzhu,qieqiyingxiangchengduzhujianjiashen。youyubeifangchuantongnongqunongyebijiaoxiaoyipiandi、nongcunjingjifazhanluohou,yincizhengceyindaoduiyucujinnongyenongcunyouxianfazhanjuyouzhongyaoyiyi。zaizheiyiguochengzhong,xiangguanzhengcedepujishidenonghuduigengdibaohu、guimojingyingdezhongyaoyiyiderenzhichengdujiashen,duiyuqixiangguandegengdiliuzhuanxingweichanshengjiaogaoderentonggan,nonghusixiangcongxiaonongjingjixiangshichangjingjizhuanbian,nonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuandedaotisheng。

亚博appbiao5 cunzhuangnonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuanmoxinghuiguijieguoduibi

(3)xiwujianfangcundezhuchudaotiandijuliyinsutongguole5%dexianzhuxingjianyan,houlaoyingcundedaolushifoufangbianyinsutongguole1%dexianzhuxingjianyan,zonghebiaominggengdidejiaotongtiaojianzainongcunfazhandeqianqihehouqijieduanduinonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuandeyingxiangfeichangxianzhu。zhuchudaotiandijuliyinsudebiaozhunhuaxishuweizhengzhi0.406,shuomingqianqijieduan,suizhezhuchudaotiandijulizengjia,gengzuobanjingdezengjiashidenongminchuxinggengzuodebianlichengdujiangdi,nonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuanshangsheng。suizhecunzhuangdebuduanfazhan,nongcunshengchanjiaotonggongjuzhujianpubian,gengzuobanjingduiyugengzuobianlichengdudexianzhizuoyongbiandeweiruo,tongshi,suizhenongcundaolujiaotongtiaojiandedaoyidingchengdudegaishan,qianwangtianjiangengzuodedaoluyuefangbian,nonghuyuebuyuanyijiangsuoyongyoudegengdiliuzhuanchuqu,yincidaolushifoufangbianyinsudebiaozhunhuaxishuweifuzhi-0.186。

(4)西五间房村的人均承包耕地面积因素通过了5%的显著性检验,表明人均承包耕地面积在农村发展的前期阶段对农户耕地流转意愿的影响非常显著,但其影响程度相对较小,标准化系数的绝对值仅为0.211。其优势比为0.791,说明农户家庭人均耕地面积每增加1/15 hm²,农户愿意流转耕地的概率降低为原先的0.791倍。对于农区而言,拥有耕地规模较大的农户多已实现机械化规模经营,并可利用其余时间从事其他行业,因此其不愿意流转出土地,且愿意承包更多耕地以获得增值效益^[7]。

(1)nonghushourushuiping、jiatingzhuyaoshourulaiyuanheduixiangguanzhengcedelejiechengduduihuanghuaihaipingyuannongqunonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuandeyingxiangjiaoweixianzhu。qizhong,jingyingxingshouruzuoweinongminzhuyaoshourulaiyuan,nonghushourushuipingdetishengshidenonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuanmingxianxiajiang; suizhenonghushourulaiyuandefeinonghua,yijiduitudiliuzhuanxiangguanzhengcelejiechengdudejiashen,nonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuanshangsheng。

亚博app(2)huanghuaihaipingyuannongqubutongcunzhuangfazhanjieduanzhongyingxiangnonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuandeyinsuyousuochayi。jiatingzhuyaoshourulaiyuanzainongcunfazhandezhongqianqijieduanduinonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuandeyingxiangjiaoweixianzhuqieqiyingxiangchengdujiaoda,dannonghuweichongfenliyongjiatingneibuchengyuandefengongyoushishijiatingshouyizuidahua,shourufeinonghuaduigengdiliuzhuanyiyuandezhengxiangcijizuoyongjiangzhujianruohua。youyuzhengcepujitishenglenonghuduitudiliuzhuangongzuoderentonggan,nonghuduixiangguanzhengcedelejiechengduzainongcunfazhandezhonghouqijieduanduinonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuandezhengxiangcijijiaoweixianzhu,qieqiyingxiangchengduzhujianjiashen。gengdidejiaotongtiaojianzainongcunfazhandeqianqihehouqijieduanduinonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuandeyingxiangfeichangxianzhu,qianqijieduanzhuchudaotiandijulizengjiadaozhigengzuobianlichengdujiangdi,nonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuanshangsheng; houqijieduannongcundaolujiaotongtiaojiandegaishanshidenonghubuyuanjiangsuoyongyoudegengdiliuzhuanchuqu。youyuyongyougengdiguimojiaodadenonghuduoyishixianjixiehuaguimojingying,renjunchengbaogengdimianjizainongcunfazhandeqianqijieduanduinonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuandefuxiangcijifeichangxianzhu,danqiyingxiangchengduxiangduijiaoxiao。

亚博appdangqian,woguonongcungengdiliyongheguanlirengranmianlinbujusanluan、cufangdixiaodengwenti,yincijiakuaituijinnongcuntudiliuzhuanshicujinnongyexiandaihua、guimohua、gaoxiaohuajingying,cujinnongyezengchanhenongminzengshoudezhongyaoshouduan。tongshi,xinxingshixiashenhuanongcungaige,zhuxianrengranshichulihaonongminyutudideguanxi。yinci,gengdiliuzhuangongzuodetuijinyidingyaochongfenzunzhongnongminyiyuan,baozhangheshixiannongminquanyi,jifanongcunfazhanhuoli。weitigaohuanghuaihainongqunonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuan,cujinnongcungengdiheliliuzhuan,jiyubenwenyanjiujielunyouzhenduixingditichuyixiajidianzhengcejianyi:(1)zhelijiaqiangnongcunlaodonglipeixun,tigaonongminfeinongjineng,weinongcunfuyulaodonglizhuanyijiuyechuangzaotiaojian,tishengnongminshourushuiping,cujinnongmingongjiuyexiangwending、youbaozhang、yousuzhidengfangxiangzhuanbian。(2)zhubujiaqiangtudiliuzhuandepufaxuanchuanlidu,guangfanxuanchuantudiliuzhuandeyiyihezhengcecuoshi,yijiqiduinongminzengshoudeshijixiaoguo,xiaochunongmindesixianggulv,tigaotudiliuzhuanyishi。(3)tongguoshishikuodajichusheshijianshetouru、gaishannongyeshengchantiaojian,chongfenjifajiatingjingyingdejichuzuoyong,zhongdianpeiyucongshizhuanyehua、jiyuehuanongyeshengchandejiatingnongchang,shizhichengweiyinlingshiduguimojingying、fazhanxiandainongyedeyoushengliliang。(4)kaolvzhongdianmianxiangchengbaotudidezhongzhidahu,jinzaokaizhannongyejishutuiguanghenongyequanchanyelianpeixundeng,cujinnongminkexuekaizhanzhongzhihuodong,zuizhongshixianliuzhuangengdideguimohua、jiyuehuahechanyehuafazhan。

lingwai,benwenxuanquhuanghuaihaipingyuanzhongdeyigedianxingnongyexiankaizhanyanjiu,juyouyidingdaibiaoxing,keweihuanghuaihaipingyuannongqunonghugengdiliuzhuangongzuotigongyidingdecankaoyujiejian。danwoguonongcunqingkuangqianchawanbie,gedizaijutishixingxiangguanzhengceqianyaochongfenkaolvdaokenengyingxiangquyunonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuandesuoyouyinsu,weilaiyoutiaojiandeqingkuangxiahaikeyiduijuticunzhuangkaizhanzhangqidingdianguance,binghelifenxiyanpanxianzhuyingxiangnonghugengdiliuzhuanyiyuandeyinsujiqiqudongjizhi,yindizhiyi、helishice。