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气候变化对黄土高原浅层滑坡影响的模拟研究——以延安宝塔区为例
1, 1,2, 3,4, 1

(1.xibeinonglinkejidaxue shuiliyujianzhugongchengxueyuan, shanxi yangling 712100; 2.zhongguohanqujieshuiyanjiuyuan, shanxi yangling 712100; 3.zhongguokexueyuan shuilibu yaboappsuo, shanxi yangling712100; 4.xibeinonglinkejidaxue yaboappsuo, shanxi yangling 712100)

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Impact of Climate Change on Shallow Landslides in the Loess Plateau-A Case Study in Baota Region, Yan'an City
XU Zenghui1, JIN Jiming1,2, CAI Yaohui3,4, YANG Tao1

(1.institute of water conservation and architectural engineering, northwest a&f university, yangling, shaanxi 712100, china; 2.institute of water-saving agriculture in arid areas in china, yangling, shaanxi 712100, china; 3.institute of soil and water conservation, cas & mwr, yangling, shaanxi 712100,china; 4.institute of soil and water conservation, northwest a&f university, yangling, shaanxi 712100, china)

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备注

huangtugaoyuanweiqiancenghuapodizhizaihaiyifaqu。zaiquanqiuqihoubianhuadebeijingxia,jiduanjiangshuizengduo,shifouhuidaozhiqiancenghuapodizhizaihaizengduojidaiyanjiu。yiyananbaotaquweili,zai3zhongquanqiuqihoumoshi(gcm)2zhongdianxingnongduqingjingrcp(representative concentration pathway)xia,liyongyanjiuqujiangshuijiangchidushujuqudongtrigrs(transient rainfall infiltration and grid based regional slope-stability model)huapoyubaomoxing,jieherosenbluethdiangufajiejueturangcanshubuquedingxingwenti,duiyananbaotaqu1979—2100nianhuapofenbuqingkuangjinxingmoni,yanjiulebutongqihoumoshiheqingjingxiajiangyushijianbianhuaqushi,jinerduiqiancenghuapodeyingxiang。tongguodui13 188cihuapomonijieguodefenxibiaoming:butongdeqihoumoshijiangshuiqudongdehuapomoniyubaobiaoxianchubutongdequshi,qizhonggfdl-esm2ghemiroc5liangzhongqihoumoshiweilaihuapozengduoqushimingxian,zaircp4.5deqingjingxia,yulishishiqi(1979—2018nian)xiangbi,weilai(2059—2098nian)yanjiuquneiqiancenghuapomianjidayuezengduo23.10%he43.16%,zaircp8.5deqingjingxiadayuezengduo31.14%he47.17%; ipsl-cm5a-mrqihoumoshiweilaihuapoyubaochenglveweixiajiangqushi。weilaiyanjiuquneiqiancenghuapozengduozhuyaoshiyouyuyoufahuapodejiangyushijiancishuzengduodaozhi。benyanjiukeweihuangtugaoyuandiquweilaizaihaiyujingdengtigongcankao。

the loess plateau is the prone area of shallow landslide geological disaster in china. under the background of climate change, the global extreme precipitation weather is increasing, and the corresponding geological disasters are also increasing. taking baota region of yan'an as an example, the rainfall forecast results of 1979—2098 under three climate models and two kinds of rcp scenarios in cmip5 were processed by statistical downscaling, and the change of shallow landslide in 1979—2098 in the study area was obtained by using the rainfall downscaling data driven trigrs landslide forecast model and rosenblueth point estimation method. based on the analysis of 13 188 landslide simulation results, it is shown that: different climate models driven by precipitation show different trends in landslide simulation prediction, among which gfdl-esm2g and miroc5 two climate models have obvious upward trend in future landslide prediction; under the scenario of rcp4.5, compared with the historical period(1979—2018), the area of shallow landslide in the future(2059—2098)study area will increase by about 23.10% and 43.16%, increased by 31.14% and 47.17% under the scenario of rcp8.5; the future landslide prediction of ipsl-cm5a-mr climate model shows a slight downward trend. in the future, the increase of shallow landslides in the study area is mainly due to the increase of rainfall events. this study can provide reference for future disaster warning in the loess plateau.

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